When a relationship ends, it often feels abrupt and, at times, traumatic, especially after years of emotional investment. However, a new study by psychology professors Janina Bühler from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and Ulrich Orth from the University of Bern suggests that the decline in a relationship often begins years before the breakup occurs.
Published on March 21, the study revealed that most relationships experience a predictable decline in satisfaction over several years before ending. Researchers identified this period as the “preterminal phase,” where dissatisfaction builds gradually. Eventually, this dissatisfaction culminates in the “terminal phase,” marked by a sharp drop in satisfaction after reaching a “transition point.” This phase typically lasts between seven and 28 months.
“From this transition point onwards, there is a rapid deterioration in relationship satisfaction. Couples in question then move towards separation,” said Bühler.
Here is what Orth and Bühler found in their study.
To test this theory, Bühler, Orth, and their team of researchers analyzed the time leading up to a relationship’s end in their study. They studied data from four large, representative studies conducted in Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands—countries that are part of the WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) group, where individuals have the legal freedom to make their own decisions regarding relationship status.
Each study encompassed 11,295 participants, with an equally sized control group of couples who had not separated. The surveys spanned 12 to 21 years, and in Germany, the research utilized data from the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics, a multidisciplinary longitudinal study. Across all four countries, participants were asked to rate their current satisfaction with their romantic relationships.
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The researchers found that relationships could experience a phase of what they termed “terminal decline,” which occurs in two distinct stages. The first stage, the pre-terminal phase, can last for several years and is marked by a slow, gradual drop in satisfaction. This is followed by a tipping point, after which satisfaction plummets rapidly. The terminal phase, which follows this tipping point, typically lasts between seven to 28 months, with an average duration of one to two years.
“Once this terminal phase is reached, the relationship is doomed to come to an end. This is apparent from the fact that only the individuals in the separation group go through this terminal phase, not the control group,” Bühler said of the study’s findings.
Interestingly, partners don’t experience the transition phase in the same way. According to Bühler, one partner—typically the one who initiates the breakup—becomes dissatisfied with the relationship earlier than the other partner, who may not even realize things are falling apart. For the person receiving the separation, the transition point comes just before the breakup, leading to a swift and dramatic decline in relationship satisfaction.
“Partners pass through various phases. They do not normally separate from one day to the next, and the way these phases impact on the two partners differs,” Bühler explained.
When this happens, it’s often too late to save the relationship.
“It is thus important to be aware of these relationship patterns. Initiating measures in the preterminal phase of a relationship, i.e., before it begins to go rapidly downhill, may thus be more effective and even contribute to preserving the relationship,” the couples therapist advised.
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