Lithium: The Next Frontier in Alternative Energy
Not everyone is convinced that integrating lithium-ion batteries as the primary energy capacitor is a positive move however. Critics of Lithium-based energy solutions argue that although Lithium is one of the most common metals in the Earth’s crust, the availability of easily accessible reserves of the mineral may be comparatively limited – in his damning report entitled “The Trouble with Lithium,” William Tahil, Research Director at Meridian International Research, asserts that readily available reserves of Lithium are not nearly abundant enough to sustain a drastic increase in demand.
“If we say in very round figures that global production of lithium carbonate is now 100,000 tons per year, that is realistically sufficient, if it was available, to produce 2 to 3 million GM Volt batteries.” said Tahil, “Since all of that lithium carbonate output is already spoken for, production needs to be doubled just to produce 2 to 3 million GM Volt-type Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles per year, compared to global car production of 50 to 60 million, while existing demand from electronic and portable devices is growing at 25% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate). I note the new Bombardier C Series aircraft which is seen as a major threat to the Boeing 737 and A320 is the first commercial aircraft to use an aluminium-lithium fuselage. Lithium is also planned to be used in future fusion reactors.” He concluded that “the range of future demands for lithium is unsustainable.”
Tahil also argues that the United States’ Lithium reserves are plagued by too many issues to provide a real guarantee of long-term viability and continued expansion. “There are issues with the lithium deposits in the US,” said Tahil. “Clayton Lake is small and in decline. North Carolina has been shut down. There are major difficulties with the Salton Sea and Smackover Brine resources, particularly water availability. At least the projection from Simbol Mining of 16,000 tons per year of LI2CO3 is not an exaggeration. But that is only enough for 300,000 to 500,000 GM Volt-type vehicles per annum.”
Furthermore, Tahil maintains that due to limited availability of inexpensive brine lithium, the mineral’s extraction will almost certainly have to shift to other sources, such as spodumene – a mineral from which lithium can be extracted by fusing it with acid – to fuel the growing demand for the metal. Because extracting lithium from spodumene is much more costly than mining it from brines, prices are set to rise sharply and the impact on Lithium-dependant ventures may be severe.
Despite the critics’ grim predictions, lithium’s proponents remain cautiously optimistic – “There is not, nor should there ever be, a lithium shortage, said Dr. Hykawy. “Lithium is one of the most abundant elements in the Earth’s crust. Inexpensive lithium is a different story, but batteries use so little lithium it may not matter.At present price points, the battery in the upcoming Nissan Leaf, their new all-electric car, will use about $100 of raw lithium. This is in a battery that costs roughly $18,000 to make, today. Even if lithium were to quadruple in price, driving it to levels that have never even been approached historically, the lithium in a Leaf would amount to $400.”
